Labour/Greens only 0.5% behind the Nats in latest poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll was dropped the other day, showing the pre-budget mood of voters.

  • National 43%
  • Labour 28.5%
  • Greens 14%
  • NZ First 10%
  • Māori 1.5%
  • Internet – Mana 1%
  • ACT 0.5%
  • United Future 0%
  • Conservatives 0%
  • Other 1.5%

Assuming there’s no change in the electorate seats, we’d expect each party to earn the following seats in parliament:

  • National 53
  • Labour 35
  • Greens 17
  • NZ First 12
  • Māori 2
  • ACT 1
  • United Future 1

The centre-left (Labour + Greens) has 52 seats.

The centre-right (National + ACT) has 54 seats.

The centre (Māori + NZ First + UF) has 15 seats.

Either way, NZ First unfortunately holds the balance of power.

Many seem to believe Winston will happily fall in line and form a government with the Greens and Labour, but that could not be without great cost to the other two parties. Any government with Winston Peters involved will be naturally chaotic. He will refuse to be treated second to the Greens, despite his lesser influence, will alienate many, and hinder any attempted social progress.

Of course, much of this concern applies still to any National led government involving Peters, but they are already less fractured than the Labour/Greens bloc.

Ideally, I’d like to see the centre-left scrounge up just 6 more seats, then form a government with the support of the Māori Party and United Future.

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