Labour/Greens 1% ahead of the Nats in latest poll!

The latest Roy Morgan poll was dropped tonight.

  • National 43%
  • Labour 30.5%
  • Greens 13.5%
  • NZ First 8%
  • Māori 1.5%
  • ACT 1%
  • United Future 0%
  • Conservatives 0%
  • Internet – Mana 0%
  • Other 2.5%

Assuming there’s no change in the electorate seats, we’d expect each party to earn the following seats in parliament:

  • National 53
  • Labour 37
  • Greens 17
  • NZ First 10
  • Māori 2
  • ACT 1
  • United Future 1

The centre-left (Labour + Greens) has 54 seats.

The centre-right (National + ACT) has 54 seats.

The centre (Māori + NZ First + UF) has 15 seats.

Either way, NZ First unfortunately still holds the balance of power- but the left has grown stronger.

The ‘status-quo’ government is now four seats short of a government; five if Te Ururoa Flavell loses his seat to Labour (Marama would be gone too, for her party vote is too low, but Labour would gain his electorate).

As I said last time I shared a poll with a somewhat positive outlook,

Many seem to believe Winston will happily fall in line and form a government with the Greens and Labour, but that could not be without great cost to the other two parties. Any government with Winston Peters involved will be naturally chaotic. He will refuse to be treated second to the Greens, despite his lesser influence, will alienate many, and hinder any attempted social progress.

Of course, much of this concern applies still to any National led government involving Peters, but they are already less fractured than the Labour/Greens bloc.

Ideally, I’d like to see the centre-left scrounge up just 6 more seats, then form a government with the support of the Māori Party and United Future.

Now they’d only need another 4.

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