Someone’s gotta lose on saturday, and someone’s gotta win. So what will happen to these leaders afterwards? These are my reckons.
Jacinda became leader in a last-minute attempt to turn the odds around. Any concievable result means she’s done more than save the furniture, but bought a new sofa suite.
If she loses, she’ll have made more than enough gains to stay as leader, even if the election is lost. Labour has a greater mandate, and National looks weaker. It’s looking to be quite a Corbyn-esque victory, but worse, as Jacinda’s Labour actually did poll ahead for a while.
If she wins, she’s Prime Minister.
National was sleepwalking into victory months ago, was thrown a curveball when Jacinda took over, but has had their numbers bounce back to a pre-Jacinda like level.
If he loses, he’s gone. I have no clue who might replace him as the new opposition leader, as there’s not one stand out senior National MP. Paula Bennett? No way. Judith Collins? Contended last year, but would be awful, especially with her scandals. Brownlee? Haha. Jonothan Coleman? He contented the leadership last year, so it’s possible, but his public performance as health minister hasn’t impressed much. Joyce? He’s lost any credibility over this campaign, and would be no match against Jacinda.
Whoever replaces him has no chance of dethroning a Labour government.
If he wins, he has to go before the next election. Jacinda will still be be the Labour leader, and his rock like persona won’t survive 3 more years of Jacinda, nor will it lead National to a 5th term. Who they replace him with is anyone’s guess, but Bill won’t be there forever. AIf he is, there’s no way they’ll win.
At this point, he’s likely to be the king/queenmaker this election, so if he is in this position after saturday, he’s got a term in government ahead of him. However, after the 2020 election, I’d expect NZ First to at least be out of government.
If, and it’s very possible, Winston loses his Northland seat and NZ First goes below 5%, they’re out. The last time they went out, Winston simply waited three years, and stood again, successfully. He could certainly do this again, or he could finally throw in the towel after 3 decades. But, Winston might just be immortal. Watch this space?
Regardless of the election result, he will remain as co-leader. I expect in the July AGM, Marama Davidson, already #2 on the list, will join James as the female co-leader. That will be a grand choice, and the Greens will keep swimming.
With current polling, she will no longer be in parliament, which causes a difficulty for the leadership of the Māori Party. Like the Greens, the Māori Party requires a male and female co-leader. Without Marama, the Māori Party would have just 2 males in parliament.
According to the Māori Party constitution (section 7.3), if the conditions can’t be met (like in this case), they choose a co-leader outside of parliament. I would really doubt Marama Fox would be rolled as co-leader, as she’s an excellent ‘asset’ to the party and the party’s image.
Is this even worth considering?