What are the Greens’ options?

Labour/NEw Zealand First/Greens Coalition

  • A 1 term government
  • Would lose significant public support in coalition, already vulnerable
  • Would gain few policy concessions when the third partner

Labour/New Zealand First with Greens in C&S

  • Potentially more than a 1 term government
  • Would allow Greens to gain more support
  • Labour may lose support due to working with NZF, and prevent a second term with just Greens (+Māori?)
  • NZF has large potential to be gone after 1 term
  • Allows Greens to vote independently on legislation, so Labour/NZF would have to craft legislation to gain support from either Greens or National

Labour/Greens in Opposition with National/New Zealand First in Governing Coalition

  • Unlikely to last longer than 1 term
  • Would allow Labour and Greens to both prepare better for a landslide victory in the 2020 election (can learn from mistakes)
  • Labour may struggle keeping relentlessly positive vibe with 3 years in opposition
  • If they try to end the Māori seats, this can be to the left’s advantage (in some ways), as we can protest, and maybe bring the Māori Party back with us

However,

  • National and NZF could prove surprisingly good coalition partners
  • Jacinda could suffer from opposition, with relentless positivity ending up at odds with strong opposition
  • Labour and the Greens could thus just fall short of governing again, and Winston & National could survive for a 5th term

National/Greens Coalition?

  • Would cost significant public support for the Greens, especially after campaigning so hard for change
  • Would get absolutely nowhere with the social-development faction of the party
  • Many Green MPs would struggle working with the National Party
  • As ridiculous as a Red/Blue government (in New Zealand)
  • National would have to make significant policy concessions, and would need to win over 75% of Green members (like me)
  • National would likely make more concessions than Labour would, but Labour has significantly more in common already

However,

  • National certainly does treat it’s coalition partners well. The Māori Party made significant gains despite their alliance with the National Party (until their head fell off the other day)
  • Would shift National to at least be more environmental. Key’s embrace of the Māori Party certainly ended Brashism in the party, and made the party more Māori friendly

Something else?

Naturally there’s many other options for a government.

After the 2005 election we had:

  • Labour Party and the Progressive Party in a coalition
  • United Future and NZ First in a confidence and supply agreement with ministerial portfolios outside of cabinet
  • Greens would abstain on confidence and supply votes in exchange for policy concessions and consultment

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