Which of these four broad options would you place yourself in, with the first being how you vote and the second whom you want NZF to choose.
— David Farrar (@dpfdpf) October 14, 2017
David Farrar, blogger and National Party pollster, tweeted a quick Twitter poll last night.
Of left voters, 53% want Winston to join Labour & the Greens, while 47% want NZ First to form government with National. This isn’t surprising. It does require NZ First in government, which could really hurt the left’s chances of a second term in government. Labour and the Greens are already in a weaker position, so the association with NZ First could really harm them. Letting National and NZ First end a fourth term government for good while Labour and the Greens strengthen their hand would have a much better chance of a multi term government. But, can change wait?
Of right voters, 69% want NZ First to choose National, while 31% want NZ First to choose Labour & the Greens. Obviously, the same arguments used before apply here, only for the inverse reasons. National would love a fourth term in government. However, there’s also an incentive to let NZ First wreck Labour’s government, allowing National to jump back in for another long run in 2020.
The left’s really split on what outcome they want. On the other hand, just over 2/3 right voters would prefer Winston to form a government with National. Either way, few will be really happy with the outcome.