New Roy Morgan poll gives Labour and the Greens a majority

CSV  

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, and it’s looking good for the left!

The Labour/NZF+Green government parties are at 54.5%, with Labour/Greens together at 49.5%.

National has dropped down to 40.5%, and NZ First has fallen to just 5%.

Labour is at 39.5%, just 1% point behind National, and the Greens are back up to 10%.

If this were translated into seats, Labour and the Greens would have a combined 62 seats, 13 of which belong to the Greens. That would mean New Zealand First would be put back into opposition.

Let’s hope these results are sustained for 2020.

 

66.5% say NZ is heading in the right direction, while just 20% say NZ is heading in the wrong direction.

What if NZ First was split into three different parties: Left, Right, and the Unsures?

There’s been many claims that the majority didn’t vote for this new government, as not all New Zealand First voters want to go into government coalition with Labour. Now, this is a pathetic attempt to undermine the credibility of the new government, and it’s not how proportional representation works, but let’s see if there’s any credibility to this claim.

The only data we have is a poll of NZ First voters before the election. 65% preferred Labour, 25% preferred National, while the other 10% didn’t know. Keep in mind there’s an ±11.6% MoE.

New Zealand First won 9 seats. Let’s split that up according to the voter preferences.

  • 2 of those seats would prefer National
  • 1 of those seats would remain impartial
  • 6 of those seats would prefer Labour

What if each of those hypothetical ‘factions’ was a separate party?

Seats if NZ First were 3 parties

Here, the National/NZF/ACT grouping would have 59 seats, while the Labour/Greens/NZF grouping would have 60 seats. The National grouping could not form a government, while the Labour grouping would need New Zealand First’s one ‘Unsure/Don’t know/Impartial’ seat  to gain the necessary majority.

While the Labour grouping needs that one swing seat in the middle for a majority, National has no use for it as they would still be one seat short of a majority.

Using this visualisation, it’s clear that less than half of voters supported the status quo government, with at least half supporting the left-wing change.

David Farrar, blogger and National Party pollster, tweeted a quick Twitter poll last night.

Of left voters, 53% want Winston to join Labour & the Greens, while 47% want NZ First to form government with National. This isn’t surprising. It does require NZ First in government, which could really hurt the left’s chances of a second term in government. Labour and the Greens are already in a weaker position, so the association with NZ First could really harm them. Letting National and NZ First end a fourth term government for good while Labour and the Greens strengthen their hand would have a much better chance of a multi term government. But, can change wait?

Of right voters, 69% want NZ First to choose National, while 31% want NZ First to choose Labour & the Greens. Obviously, the same arguments used before apply here, only for the inverse reasons. National would love a fourth term in government. However, there’s also an incentive to let NZ First wreck Labour’s government, allowing National to jump back in for another long run in 2020.

The left’s really split on what outcome they want. On the other hand, just over 2/3 right voters would prefer Winston to form a government with National. Either way, few will be really happy with the outcome.

Remember, most voters want Winston to support a Labour-led government

Back before the election 1 News/Colmar Brunton asked voters who they thought NZ First should support, from September 2nd to September 6th.

46% of respondants want NZ First to support a Labour-led government.

33% of respondants want NZ First to support a National-led government.

7% of respondants don’t want NZ First to even be in government, or for NZ First to support neither National or Labour.

14% of respondants didn’t know.

It’s clear most voters want NZ First to join a Labour government.

What do New Zealand First voters think?

Note, this has an ±11.6% margin of error

NZ First supporters overwelmingly prefer joining a Labour-led government, with 65% supporting such an arrangement. Only one quarter support NZ First joining a 4th term of National government.

If Winston chooses to go with National, that’s two thirds of his support he could quickly lose.

Winston holds the balance of power in the final poll

A coin toss

The final Newshub poll

Here’s what parliament looks like on tonight’s final Newshub poll and electorate polls.

So, Winston unfortunately holds the balance of power.

The Māori Party will have Te Ururoa Flavell and Howie Tamati in parliament, with Marama Fox unfortunately out of the picture.

The Greens get 9 seats, which gives us:

  1. James Shaw (Wellington Central)
  2. ​Marama Davidson (Tamaki Makaurau)
  3. Julie Anne Genter (Mt Albert)
  4. Eugenie Sage (Port Hills)
  5. Gareth Hughes (East Coast)
  6. Jan Logie (Mana)
  7. Chlöe Swarbrick (Maungakiekie)
  8. Golriz Ghahraman (Te Atatu)
  9. Mojo Mathers (Rangitata)

New Zealand First also gets 9 seats, giving us:

  1. Winston Peters (Northland)
  2. Ron Mark (Wairarapa)
  3. Tracey Martin (Rodney)
  4. Fletcher Tabuteau (Rotorua)
  5. Darroch Ball (Palmerston North)
  6. Clayton Mitchell (Tauranga)
  7. Mark Patterson (Clutha-Southland)
  8. Shane Jones (Whangarei)
  9. Jenny Marcroft

ACT still gets just one seat, keeping David Seymour.

National gets 56 seats.

Labour gets 45 seats.

Labour’s 45 + Green’s 9 = 54 seats

Unfortunately, Winston Peters then holds the balance of power.

Therefore, we either have a National/NZ First government, or a Labour/Greens/NZ First government.

Either way, a shitty situation. But, in this volatile election, we could still be surprised.

Newshub's graphic on whether Kiwis believe in Steven

Graphic from Newshub.


Half the country doesn’t believe Steven Joyce’s claim of an $11.1 billion hole in Labour’s budget, while only 29% of Kiwis do.

Newshub's graphic on which economists agree

Thankfully, the majority of us trust the overwelmingly consensus of experts. I can definitely forgive the 22% of Kiwis who don’t know. I’m disappointed that 29% of the country is trusting National and their grubby attacks, despite the greater number of independent experts who think Steven’s claim is crap.

Steven Joyce's confirmation bias

Labour + Greens + Māori have enough to govern in latest poll

James Shaw, Jacinda Ardern, and Te Ururoa Flavell
RNZ

One News released a new poll tonight, results shown in the tweet above.

  • Labour 43%
  • National 39%
  • Greens 5%
  • NZ First 9%
  • Māori 2%
  • ACT 0.1%

Irregardless of any predicted changes to the electorates, here’s each party’s total seats:

  • Labour 53
  • National 48
  • Greens 6
  • NZ First 11
  • Māori 2
  • ACT 1

Therefore:

Labour + Greens = 59 seats, 2 short

National + ACT = 49 seats, 12 short

Labour just needs the Māori Party’s 2 seats to govern, whereas National needs both NZ First and the Māori Party to govern.