Newshub's graphic on whether Kiwis believe in Steven

Graphic from Newshub.


Half the country doesn’t believe Steven Joyce’s claim of an $11.1 billion hole in Labour’s budget, while only 29% of Kiwis do.

Newshub's graphic on which economists agree

Thankfully, the majority of us trust the overwelmingly consensus of experts. I can definitely forgive the 22% of Kiwis who don’t know. I’m disappointed that 29% of the country is trusting National and their grubby attacks, despite the greater number of independent experts who think Steven’s claim is crap.

Steven Joyce's confirmation bias

Labour + Greens + Māori have enough to govern in latest poll

James Shaw, Jacinda Ardern, and Te Ururoa Flavell
RNZ

One News released a new poll tonight, results shown in the tweet above.

  • Labour 43%
  • National 39%
  • Greens 5%
  • NZ First 9%
  • Māori 2%
  • ACT 0.1%

Irregardless of any predicted changes to the electorates, here’s each party’s total seats:

  • Labour 53
  • National 48
  • Greens 6
  • NZ First 11
  • Māori 2
  • ACT 1

Therefore:

Labour + Greens = 59 seats, 2 short

National + ACT = 49 seats, 12 short

Labour just needs the Māori Party’s 2 seats to govern, whereas National needs both NZ First and the Māori Party to govern.

Mt Albert by-election candidates

A new poll by ‘Herald ZB Kantar TNZ’ today shows that while Kiwis are certainly divided on the issue,  the majority support such a policy.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/resizer/BADRgzFJu6R_yumXbNRS9t946nc=/620x617/smart/filters:quality(100)/arc-anglerfish-syd-prod-nzme.s3.amazonaws.com/public/RGVUUFOEBVANLMTBQR366ZTVXY.jpg

  • 35% of New Zealanders support a CGT.
  • 32% don’t care either way.
  • 26% don’t want a CGT.
  • 8% don’t know.

This is a good sign for Labour and the Greens, who both have some form of a capital gains tax, and in some ways National, seeing as the instituted the current form of a CGT, the ‘Bright-line Test’.

Metiria Turei

HorizonPoll’s research shows that while 59% of 2014 Green voters are now supporting other parties, 30% of those deserters, if you will, stopped supporting the Greens because of Metiria’s admission to benefit fraud.

70% of those no longer support the Greens simply because of Labour’s empowering leadership change.

It was always unfortunate that both events happened in such a short period of time, blurring the effects of either event on the Green Party’s support. I certainly doubted the effect Metiria’s admission had on the Greens’ support, especially now considering that New Zealand First’s lost almost the same amount of support as the Greens have since Jacinda took the helm.

Both NZ First and the Greens have halved their support since Jacinda took the wheel- so why are we blaming Metiria?

Polling results

This table from Wikipedia shows all the polling results from non-leaked polls. Since Jacinda became leader of the Labour Party, both NZ First and Greens have had their support effectively halved, to Labour’s benefit.

The Green Party support didn’t drop until Jacinda became leader and Metiria resigned. Metiria’s admission had no effect on the polls.

While the speed of the Greens losing support to Labour was probably greatly influenced by Metiria’s resignation, NZ First has suffered almost just as much at this point. Everyone would expect NZ First to rapidly lose support if their leader resigned.

Metiria should not be blamed for the Greens loss of support. This is a byproduct of a strong Labour Party, and little more.


For the record, I don’t think Metiria herself should be solely blamed for the faster loss of Green support. The mistake was not telling her story (which the Green leadership backed 100% in the first place), but failing to prepare for the media attention the story attracted. As James has said, they only recieved about 1% of the entire media coverage in the 2014 election, and this was a (successful) attempt at increading their share. Unfortunately, whether naive, media inexperienced, optimistic, or all of these, the party (not solely Metiria) failed to preemptively tie up any loose ends and get the media strategy straight. That is the mistake the Greens made, and that is the only mistake.