What if NZ First was split into three different parties: Left, Right, and the Unsures?

There’s been many claims that the majority didn’t vote for this new government, as not all New Zealand First voters want to go into government coalition with Labour. Now, this is a pathetic attempt to undermine the credibility of the new government, and it’s not how proportional representation works, but let’s see if there’s any credibility to this claim.

The only data we have is a poll of NZ First voters before the election. 65% preferred Labour, 25% preferred National, while the other 10% didn’t know. Keep in mind there’s an ±11.6% MoE.

New Zealand First won 9 seats. Let’s split that up according to the voter preferences.

  • 2 of those seats would prefer National
  • 1 of those seats would remain impartial
  • 6 of those seats would prefer Labour

What if each of those hypothetical ‘factions’ was a separate party?

Seats if NZ First were 3 parties

Here, the National/NZF/ACT grouping would have 59 seats, while the Labour/Greens/NZF grouping would have 60 seats. The National grouping could not form a government, while the Labour grouping would need New Zealand First’s one ‘Unsure/Don’t know/Impartial’ seat  to gain the necessary majority.

While the Labour grouping needs that one swing seat in the middle for a majority, National has no use for it as they would still be one seat short of a majority.

Using this visualisation, it’s clear that less than half of voters supported the status quo government, with at least half supporting the left-wing change.