Remember, most voters want Winston to support a Labour-led government

Back before the election 1 News/Colmar Brunton asked voters who they thought NZ First should support, from September 2nd to September 6th.

46% of respondants want NZ First to support a Labour-led government.

33% of respondants want NZ First to support a National-led government.

7% of respondants don’t want NZ First to even be in government, or for NZ First to support neither National or Labour.

14% of respondants didn’t know.

It’s clear most voters want NZ First to join a Labour government.

What do New Zealand First voters think?

Note, this has an ±11.6% margin of error

NZ First supporters overwelmingly prefer joining a Labour-led government, with 65% supporting such an arrangement. Only one quarter support NZ First joining a 4th term of National government.

If Winston chooses to go with National, that’s two thirds of his support he could quickly lose.

Optimistic/expected Labour-Greens-Māori ministerial positions

Theoretical allocation of ministerial positions in a LabourGreensMāori government, loosely proportionate to numbers.

Following the latest Colmar Brunton poll, we expect Labour to get 54 seats, Greens to get 9, and Māori to get 2. Proportionally, the Greens should get ~8 ministerial roles. I have given them 10.

  • ACC
    • Andrew Little, the ghost of Labour leadership, is Labour’s ACC shadow minister
  • Arts, Culture and Heritage
  • Attorney-General
    • David Parker is Labour’s shadow Attorney-General
  • Building and Construction
    • Phil Twyford is Labour’s shadow minister for Housing, Building, and Construction
  • Children
  • Civil Defence
    • Clare Curran is Labour’s shadow minister for Civil Defense and Emergency Management
  • Climate Change Issues
    • James Shaw is the Green Party’s spokesperson for Climate Change. Climate Change is obviously the Green Party’s area of expertise, and certainly their priority.
  • Commerce and Consumer Affairs
    • Clayton Cosgrave is Labour’s shadow minister for Commerce.
  • Communications
    • Labour doesn’t have a shadow minister for Communications, so they may get rid of it
  • Community and Voluntary Sector
    • Poto Williams is Labour’s excellent shadow minister for this
  • Conservation
    • Mojo Mathers is the Green Party’s spokesperson for Conservation. Conservation is a Green issue!
  • Corrections
  • Courts
    • Louisa Wall is the Labour shadow minister for Courts, and an amazing MP for Manurewa
  • Customs
    • Rino Tirikatene is the Labour shadow minister for Customs
  • Defence
    • Iain Lees-Galloway is the Labour shadow minister for Defence
  • Disability Issues
    • Poto Williams is Labour’s shadow minister for Disability Issues
    • However, Mojo Mathers, the Disability Issues spokesperson for the Green Party, would also be excellent in this role. She is New Zealand’s first deaf MP, one of only 5 deaf MPs worldwide. This gives her a special interest in disability advocacy, and would be great as the minister, if not associate minister.
  • Economic Development
  • Education
    • Chris Hipkins is Labour’s Education spokesperson
  • Energy and Resources
    • Gareth Hughes is the Green Party’s spokesperson for Energy and Resources. This ministerial role will  be a priority for the Greens to shift New Zealand to 100% green energy.
  • Environment
    • Eugenie Sage is the Green spokesperson for the Environment.
  • Ethnic Communities
    • Labour’s Ethnic Communities shadow minister didn’t look nearly as ideal as the Green Party’s Golriz Ghahraman, a former Iranian refugee and human rights lawyer.
  • Finance
  • Food Safety
    • Damien O’Connor is the Labour shadow minister for Food Safety
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Greater Christchurch Regeneration
  • Health
    • Dr David Clark is Labour’s shadow minister for Health
  • Immigration
    • Iain Lees-Galloway is the Labour shadow minister for Immigration
  • Infrastructure
    • Labour doesn’t have a shadow minister for Infrastructure, so they may scrap it
  • Internal Affairs
    • Adrian Rurawhe is the Labour shadow minister for Internal Affairs
  • Justice
    • Heck, this is another role for ol’ Andrew Little
  • Land Information
    • Raymond Huo is Labour’s shadow minister for Land Information
  • Local Government
    • Meka Whaitiri is Labour’s shadow minister for Local Government
  • Māori Development
    • Te Ururoa Flavell holds this role in the current government, though Kelvin Davis may want it
  • National Security and Intelligence
    • Jacinda Ardern gets this, understandably
  • Pacific Peoples
    • Labour doesn’t have a shadow minister for ‘Pacific Peoples’, but do have William Sio as shadow minister for Pacific Island Affairs
    • Marama Davidson is the Greens spokesperson for Pacific Peoples, so would be a great associate minister, if not the minister
  • Police
    • Stuart Nash is the Labour shadow minister for Police
  • Primary Industries
    • Damien O’Connor is the Labour shadow minister for Primary Industries
  • Prime Minister
    • James Shaw right? I kid.
    • Jacinda gets this. 100%
  • Racing
    • The amazing Kris Faafoi is Labour’s shadow minister for Racing
  • Regulatory Reform
  • Revenue
    • Michael Wood is Labour’s shadow minister for Revenue
  • Science and Innovation
    • Dr Megan Woods is Labour’s shadow minister for this
  • Seniors
    • Ruth Dyson is Labour’s shadow minister for Senior Citizens
  • Social Development
    • Ideally, I would love to see Jan Logie hold this position, and she is already the Green spokesperson for this issue.
  • Social Housing
    • Marama Davidson is well-deserving of a ministerial position, and would be excellent as the Minister for Social Housing. This is already her portfolio
  • Sport and Recreation
  • State Owned Enterprises
    • Labour doesn’t seem to have a shadow minister for this, nor do the Greens
  • State Services
    • Peeni Henare is Labour’s shadow minister for State Services
  • Statistics
    • Ruth Dyson is also shadow minister for Stats
  • Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment
    • Labour splits these up into Education, Skills and Training, and Employment
    • The shadow ministers are Chris Hipkins, Jenny Salesa, and Grant Robertson respectively
  • Tourism
    • Kris Faafoi is also the awesome shadow minister for Tourism
  • Trade
    • David Parker is Labour’s shadow minister for Entrepreneurship & Trade and Export Growth
  • Transport
    • Julie-Anne Genter has the experience necessary and has proven herself to make an excellent Transport Minister
  • Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations
    • Adrian Rurawhe is Labour’s shadow minister for Te Tiriti negotiations
  • Veterans’ Affairs
    • Clayton Cosgrove is Labour’s shadow minister for Veterans
  • Whanau Ora
    • Te Ururoa Flavell holds this role in the current government, and it is a Māori Party initiative
  • Women
    • Ruth Dyson is also Labour’s shadow minister for Women’s Affairs
    • Jan Logie would also make a great associate minister
  • Workplace Relations and Safety
    • Iain Lees-Galloway is Labour’s shadow minister for this
  • Youth
    • Chlöe! She’d do an excellent job
    • Labour has Louisa Wall as shadow minister for Youth Affairs, and would also do a good job

Let’s see how much I get right. Most’s pretty obvious.

National’s ‘alternative facts’ are working.

National's alternative facts

A conversation with my father today from newzealand

Despite the most patriotic true-blue New Zealanders scoffing at what’s happened in the United States, they’re still totally buying National’s dishonest claims about Labour’s tax plans. This is simply sad.

Labour have ruled out any CGT or land tax on the family home, they have no plans for any increase in income tax, the water levy significant enough to be of any concern (though not as good as Greens policy), and the ‘fart’ tax is just fair. It’s ridiculous that farming is the only industry that’s not only free from the emissions trading scheme, but then has any emissions entirely subsidised by the taxpayer. Even then, Labour only wants to start off with having 10% of their emissions taxed.

But, at this point, it’s no surprise Labour has been forced to announce they’ll be no new taxes from their working group till 2021. Whether true or not, it’s necessary to counter National’s dishonest attack campaign.

 

 

Greens propose 10c water tax in ’11, industry claims $50k, Labour propose 1-2c water tax, industry also claims $50k

It’s getting harder and harder to see the dairy industry’s claims around Labour’s proposed 1-2c water levy as having any merit.

The other day, Dairy New Zealand claimed that Labour’s water tax would add a cost of around $45,000 to each farm.

But, in 2011, Irrigation New Zealand claimed a 10c water levy, up to 10 times the size of Labour’s, would increase each farm’s costs by around… $40-50,000.

That would either suggest water usage has increased tenfold in the last 6 years, or the dairy industry’s full of shit and scaremongering.

Labour + Greens + Māori have enough to govern in latest poll

James Shaw, Jacinda Ardern, and Te Ururoa Flavell
RNZ

One News released a new poll tonight, results shown in the tweet above.

  • Labour 43%
  • National 39%
  • Greens 5%
  • NZ First 9%
  • Māori 2%
  • ACT 0.1%

Irregardless of any predicted changes to the electorates, here’s each party’s total seats:

  • Labour 53
  • National 48
  • Greens 6
  • NZ First 11
  • Māori 2
  • ACT 1

Therefore:

Labour + Greens = 59 seats, 2 short

National + ACT = 49 seats, 12 short

Labour just needs the Māori Party’s 2 seats to govern, whereas National needs both NZ First and the Māori Party to govern.