Remember, most voters want Winston to support a Labour-led government

Back before the election 1 News/Colmar Brunton asked voters who they thought NZ First should support, from September 2nd to September 6th.

46% of respondants want NZ First to support a Labour-led government.

33% of respondants want NZ First to support a National-led government.

7% of respondants don’t want NZ First to even be in government, or for NZ First to support neither National or Labour.

14% of respondants didn’t know.

It’s clear most voters want NZ First to join a Labour government.

What do New Zealand First voters think?

Note, this has an ±11.6% margin of error

NZ First supporters overwelmingly prefer joining a Labour-led government, with 65% supporting such an arrangement. Only one quarter support NZ First joining a 4th term of National government.

If Winston chooses to go with National, that’s two thirds of his support he could quickly lose.

Winston holds the balance of power in the final poll

A coin toss

The final Newshub poll

Here’s what parliament looks like on tonight’s final Newshub poll and electorate polls.

So, Winston unfortunately holds the balance of power.

The Māori Party will have Te Ururoa Flavell and Howie Tamati in parliament, with Marama Fox unfortunately out of the picture.

The Greens get 9 seats, which gives us:

  1. James Shaw (Wellington Central)
  2. ​Marama Davidson (Tamaki Makaurau)
  3. Julie Anne Genter (Mt Albert)
  4. Eugenie Sage (Port Hills)
  5. Gareth Hughes (East Coast)
  6. Jan Logie (Mana)
  7. Chlöe Swarbrick (Maungakiekie)
  8. Golriz Ghahraman (Te Atatu)
  9. Mojo Mathers (Rangitata)

New Zealand First also gets 9 seats, giving us:

  1. Winston Peters (Northland)
  2. Ron Mark (Wairarapa)
  3. Tracey Martin (Rodney)
  4. Fletcher Tabuteau (Rotorua)
  5. Darroch Ball (Palmerston North)
  6. Clayton Mitchell (Tauranga)
  7. Mark Patterson (Clutha-Southland)
  8. Shane Jones (Whangarei)
  9. Jenny Marcroft

ACT still gets just one seat, keeping David Seymour.

National gets 56 seats.

Labour gets 45 seats.

Labour’s 45 + Green’s 9 = 54 seats

Unfortunately, Winston Peters then holds the balance of power.

Therefore, we either have a National/NZ First government, or a Labour/Greens/NZ First government.

Either way, a shitty situation. But, in this volatile election, we could still be surprised.

Is this Winston Peters scandal really that significant?

Winston Peters: "Maybe?"

At least, not yet.

Newsroom and Newshub both report that Winston was overpaid $18,000 by the Ministry of Social Development.

What we know so far is pretty straightforward.

  • Winston was paid the extra $60/week entitled to pensioners who are single
  • Winston was alerted to the discrepency a few weeks ago, and instantly paid the money back on July 14th, days before Metiria’s admission
  • Winston has refused to confirm the amount, any details about the amount, or who is responsible for the mistake, calling the issue a ‘private matter’

Now, it’s difficult to make anything from Winston’s interactions with the media, given his refusal to cooperate is entirely consistent within his character.

Much of the outrage seems to simply be around Winston taking the pension anyway, when he already is privileged to have an enormous salary and a large mansion. This is fair- morally this can be seen as unjust (Certainly not an argument for means testing super).

Criticism also mounts for his lack of transparency, despite repeatedly calling for it from everyone else. It’s not helping his defence.

There’s only three possible situations here, and it’s really to early to make any judgement without any one of these confirmed.

  1. MSD buggered up their data
    1. Seems unlikely, considering he assumes MSD added a penalty fee, though he also claimed this was usual and sorted out after the money had been repayed (which sounds dumb)
  2. Senile Winston made a mistake on his form
    1. Possible, but implausible. Winston claims he did indicate he was living with his partner, but then it seems impossible to muck up such a simple and explicit form
  3. Doltish Winston lied on his form
    1. Who bloody knows?

Anyway, the scandal may soon be eclipsed by the instigators of this cocoffany: Winston’s said he’s now got investigators on the job, trying to uncover who is responsible for the leak. Not only that, but he has some deep suspicions.

If it’s anyone, my money’s on the National Party. Only they woould have that kind of swing over the ministry, and they have every incentive to try and push NZ First both below 5% and out of parliament.

But, when it comes to Winston and his super, it’s too foggy to come to any justified conclusion. Let’s give it a few days?

No, Winston Peters is NOT the ‘next Donald Trump’

Like most New Zealanders, I was shocked and gravely concerned at the recent results of the US Presidential election. No pundits or pollsters saw such a result coming. Trump was right: this is the new Brexit.

One Kiwi who was pleased with the outcome was Winston Peter, leader of the nationalist NZ First party. This of course raises concerns that Peters may really be the next Donald Trump. His statements on the issue certainly suggest he is at least posturing as an anti-establishment nut who will save the people from immigration.

I find this concern unfounded. Peters lacks too many of the opportunities that Donald had.

Winston Peters is definitely not anti-establishment. He’s been in parliament for nearly 40 years. He even served as deputy Prime Minister for two years. Trump, however, was an absolute outsider. A wealthy bombastic TV businessman. What’s Winston’s past? Before entering parliament, Winston Peters worked as a lawyer. Peters has none of the credentials to run as an anti-establishment outsider. Besides, the left (at least) already resoundingly rejected anti-establishment politics in the 2014 general election, when Kim Dotcom (who’s now celebrating Trump’s win) launched the Internet Party.

New Zealand has MMP. In the United States, voters are stuck with only the two big parties. Trump’s support was a minority at first, but it was enough to hijack one of those two big parties. Those sympathetic to Winston’s policies all are able to support their own small party, and still gain seats in parliament, freeing other larger parties from having an angry nationalist faction. America’s divisive two party politics are incompatible with New Zealand’s representative MMP system.

Winston will do his best to become New Zealand’s Trump, hopefully without the misogyny and explicit racism. But in the end, it will all be for nought. Only 9% of New Zealanders supported a Trump presidency.